Tuesday, October 13, 2009

The (Toilet) Bowl "Championship" Series

Ok folks, I have to get this off my chest... for about the tenth time in as many years.

The college football ranking system is useless, absurd, obsolete, and produces no true National Champion. Here's why.

Let's start with the obvious. The AP and Coaches polls are used to determine a national ranking. These polls are based on one thing: some sports writer's or coach's opinion of how good a team is. This in itself should be enough to make the point that any national champion that emerges at the end of the year from this system is based upon an unfounded opinion of how good a team is. It's simply ridiculous.

This matter of opinion determining a national rank is no more glaringly obvious than in the first few weeks of the college football season in which teams are nationally ranked in the preseason poll before they ever set foot on the football field. The preseason rankings are based not only on these unfounded opinions, but they take into account the previous year's teams and returning members. In essence what the preseason poll states is merely what a select group of people think the teams are going to be like once the season begins. It's all "on paper" at that point, and therefore is pointless. Furthermore, a team's preseason ranking -- again based on a hollow opinion, on the previous year's accomplishments, and on returning members -- continues to determine is sustained national rank throughout the year. For example this year, if preseason #1 Florida simply goes unbeaten, no matter how pathetically weak their schedule may be, they'll remain the #1 ranked team because they were ranked #1 in the preseason. It's horseshit, and it gives zero potential for any other team to usurp their position.

So at this point in the development of our examination we have a ranking system that's based upon the opinions of a select few individuals, in turn, whose opinions are based on forethought and predictions in the preseason and not at all on what's going on on the football field. Had enough already? It gets better.

When the season actually begins, the polls run into many problems, the most obvious of which has already been mentioned (a team's ability to maintain its preseason, unfounded, opinion-based national rank based solely on the fact that it just hasn't lost a game yet, no matter how insanely easy its schedule is). But then we run into a problem regarding schedule strength. Take, for example this year, Boise State. They're currently ranked #6 in the country, having a record of 5-0. And how did they accumulate that record? By beating teams like Miami Ohio, Bowling Green, Fresno State, UC Davis (didn't know they played football there), and Oregon who was unranked at the time of Boise State's victory. Their remaining schedule looks like this: Tulsa, Hawaii, San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, Idaho, Utah State, Nevada, and New Mexico State. Seriously folks? You're going to rank these guys as the 6h best football team in the country because they beat the living shit out of all these bullshit football teams that Lakeland High School in Rathdrum could beat? This is a glaringly obvious issue with the polls. There are far too many weak teams from horrible conferences playing other weak teams from other horrible conferences and ending up nationally ranked. Boise State is this year's most obvious, but others of note right now are Cincinnati, TCU, Houston (who thank god, dropped from the rankings after a lopsided loss to an unranked UTEP), and BYU. Take a look at their schedules and ask yourself if they deserve to be ranked nationally, even with 5-0 or 4-1 records right now, resulting from beating up on teams like Middle Southeastern Wyoming State West Campus For The Blind. Gimme a break.

The next issue is a result of an aforementioned issue regarding the preseason ranking. Oklahoma is this year's prime example. Right now OU is 2-2. They're ranked #19 in the AP poll. Why? Because they were preseason ranked in the top 5, and won two of their four games. Their wins are against Idaho (those formidable Vandals' football teams strike fear in the hearts of grown men) and Tulsa (still shaking in my shoes over here). Their two losses are against current #18 BYU (a previously mentioned prime example of a bullshit team with several wins on a bullshit schedule) and current #11 Miami, who has risen steadily in the ranks early this season. Several sub-issues come to mind in this situation. BYU's problem has already been mentioned (nationally ranked based on winning with a weak schedule). Miami's problem with rising in the ranks is based on the overall problem with the polls: Miami has beaten teams whose rankings were unfounded, based on the preseason polls, and beating up on weaker teams. So we really don't know how good Miami is right now. But to further compound the issue, if we take the rankings for being somewhat true at this point just for the sake of argument, and we see clearly that OU has lost half of its games, both of them to ranked opponents, we must ask ourselves how good OU can possibly be if it can't beat a ranked opponent, even if those rankings are unfounded.

This is the gigantic monkeywrench in the early season rankings: we really don't know how good a team is until it's about halfway through its schedule. Consider also that most teams have a "warm up" game or two (or 12 in Boise State's case) at the beginning of the year, in which they play a terrible, unranked opponent from a weak conference. This year seems to be worse than others, in that even after 5 games we're still seeing match-ups that don't make sense, with traditional powerhouse programs playing football teams that haven't won games, much less a conference or national title, ever.

So at this point in our examination we have a preseason poll based on opinions, last year's team, and returning members. We have nationally ranked teams who play absolutely no formidable opponents, yet who compile undefeated records. We have traditional powerhouses who play weak teams and win, and who play strong teams and lose, yet remain nationally ranked. And we truly don't know how good or bad any of these teams in the national rankings are because they've not yet been adequately tested, their rankings are still based on preseason spots, and their records largely reflect weak schedules with games played against schools who've never had any sort of noteworthy football programs in their history. Messy enough for you?

The problems deepen as the season progresses and comes to completion. As the season continues teams may slide up or down a bit, but we have to understand the points we've examined at the beginning of the season. A team's national rank cannot possibly matter if it's based on a preseason poll, an opinion of a coach or sports writer, or on beating up weak teams with less than adequate football programs. So at the end of the year, when the final rankings are set and the bowl games are picked, are we really seeing a true champion crowned when the likes of Boise State, TCU, and BYU, with their pathetic schedules, are playing in major bowl games? Obviously we are not. We're seeing who a select few individuals have decided will play in those bowl games. Period.

Many think that the BCS system has solved some of these problems because it incorporates "computer" rankings, based on schedule strength, into its national ranking system. Two things. First, the BCS also takes into consideration the AP and Coaches polls when it "calculates" the national rank of a team. How a national ranking can be unbiased, mathematical, or based on strength of schedule when it still incorporates someone's opinion, is beyond the comprehension of my intellect. It's simply not a true, mathematical system. Secondly, the BCS' strength of schedule category makes a good point. But it's almost moot because it still incorporates the opinion polls of the AP and Coaches. If you're going to base a national ranking off a record versus strength of schedule, then damn well do it. Forget the AP and Coaches polls. The BCS, because of this, still does not crown a true national champion.

In examining this system, one wonders what it will take to abolish it. One wonders how on earth the BCS could complain about losing money if a playoff system is established, which would generate more games played in bowls at the end of the year. It's beyond me. But I do have a few suggestions.

Get rid of the preseason polls and rankings. No one knows how good a team is until it steps onto a football field and plays an entire season. Period. No rankings until the end of the year.

Remove the possibility for traditional powerhouse teams to play Division II teams, who have very little, if any, chance of beating the powerhouse teams. It does nothing but add another win or two to the powerhouse team's record, and falsely inflates their "image" as a good team. It also continues to subdue those teams that are not traditional powerhouses, keeping them in the basement of college football. It keeps the scales tipped in favor of the traditional teams and does not allow a chance for anyone else to emerge as a significant winner. All Division I teams need to play only other Divsion I teams. Period.

Next, use the one little good idea the BCS has had and wait to rank teams nationally. The BCS does us all a little favor when it waits until after week 6 to rank teams so it can "calculate" schedule strength. I'm saying wait until the end of the year. Examine a team's record. Examine its opponents records and the opponents' opponents records. Figure out how good or bad these teams are based on the one and only thing that can do that: how many wins a team has and how strong its schedule has been. (I'm sick of seeing Boise State beat the shit out of 12 horseshit opponents and play in a bowl game, then bitch about not being considered for a national title. Give Boise State the schedule of LSU this year and watch it go 4-8 if it's lucky). And once the season is over, and teams are nationally ranked based on record and schedule strength, once this true ranking is established, plug the top 25 teams into a bracket playoff system (like, oh I don't know, every other sport does) and go through a few rounds of playoffs.

When it's all said and done, you'll see who the strongest team is. You'll know who deserved to win the national title, instead of sitting around second guessing everything at the end of the year. You'll see the traditional powerhouse teams beating each other up in the playoffs instead of seeing them beat up Akron and Wyoming and Middle Northeastern Tennessee Trade School of Art & Design. And most gratifying of all, these teams -- all teams -- will have the chance to play strong schedules, to win those big games, and to legitimately contend for a playoff spot. And Boise State, BYU, TCU, Houston, and Cincinnati can go duke it out amongst themselves for the Tampax Bitch Trophy in the Summer's Eve Douche Bowl with the local high school teams, where they deserve to be.

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